Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty 2025 Insights

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Spotlight on Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty 2025

Spotlight on Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty 2025

Thriving amid financial and geopolitical flux

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From fragile to agile – Strategic planning for resilience

Resilience revealed: inside the minds of global business leaders

Businesses are navigating a whirlwind of change fuelled by geopolitical tensions and economic pressures.

From shifting economic policies, evolving alliances and rising tariffs to energy crunches and inflation, this year has been anything but predictable.

Uncertainty doesn’t mean paralysis. This report shows what global business leaders are up against.

From supply chains and energy markets to the role of insurance, we examine the tools and tactics firms can use to stay resilient and competitive in a fragmented world.
Amid disruption, new frontiers are emerging. Advances in AI, breakthroughs in fusion energy, and lunar exploration are reshaping what’s possible.

The opportunities are bold and complex making specialty insurance a vital enabler for innovation, market expansion, and confident growth.

The goal isn’t merely to survive the whirlwind – it’s to build systems that evolve and thrive within it.
- Executive Summary

Get more insight

Explore how businesses are turning uncertainty into reinvention, and how resilience is moving beyond survival and manifesting as a new competitive edge.
- From Fragile to Agile
As AI and electrification surge, securing energy supply means securing sovereignty. Find out how specialty insurance can support ambition and geopolitical chess.
- Fuelling the Future
Explore how firms are reconfiguring operations, recalibrating growth strategies and embedding resilience into governance, helping them to fly through the storm.
- Headwinds into Tailwinds

Signals from the front lines

For brokers

1. Insurance as a growth engine – Risk transfer absorbs uncertainty so companies can expand into new markets, invest in emerging tech and restructure supply chains without hesitation. This means decisions don’t get delayed, and growth doesn’t get stuck.

2. Supporting the tech and energy frontier– Breakthroughs in technology and energy sources are opening new doors – but also new risks. As regulations lag behind innovation, coverage gaps emerge. This creates a sweet spot for specialty, insurance – helping fast-moving sectors stay protected while exploring unchartered, new frontiers.

3. Closing risk gaps together – When insurers, brokers and clients collaborate, the results speak for themselves. Risks get addressed, solutions are sharper, and insurance moves beyond recovery to supporting and facilitating growth.
For businesses

1. Bake in resilience to gain competitive edge – It’s time to view resilience as an engine for growth. And strategies – like diversifying suppliers, nearshoring and investing in early warning systems – should be standard practice in an uncertain risk landscape.

2. Take advantage of seismic shifts – If you're an agile firm, the benefits can flow – whether it's investing in underserved regions like Africa and Asia or getting ahead with new tech and energy sources. Early-mover advantages bear fruit and can set you apart competitively.

3. Don't wait for risk to catch up – Traditional, insurance cover is no longer enough. Today’s risks are more complex and fast-moving. This amid misinformation, energy shifts and geopolitical conflict. Future resilience lies in insurance models and services that adapt quickly and help you stay ahead.

Inside the minds of global business leaders

Key pressure points at a glance

Political risk unease deepens

88% agreed that the political landscape will affect their business’ ability to trade profitably – a notable uptick from 69% in January 2025.
Growth ambitions dampened

83% believe the current geopolitical & economic uncertainty will limit their business’ growth plans – a sharp rise from 68% in January 2025.
Supply chains in flux

87% expect to make changes to their suppliers and supply chains due to geopolitical tensions – up from 75% in January 2025.
Security reassessment on the rise

32% plan to reassess the security of their overseas operations this year, compared to 23% in 2024.
Economic uncertainty tops risk list

26% cite economic uncertainty as their greatest threat – up from 21% in 2024.
Inflation concerns edge up

27% identify inflation as their top threat now, rising to 28% by next January, and up from 24% in 2024.

Data from 3,500 executives surveyed in our 2024 and 2025 Risk & Resilience surveys. The 2025 research was conducted between January 6–20 and July 30–August 6. Note: the 'agree/believe and expect' stats are the 'strongly agree' and 'somewhat agree' answers combined. The January 2026 figure reflects global executives' expectations.

Leadership views on geopolitical & economic risk and resilience

Risk

Political risk hit a peak (32%) in Jan-24 the ‘year of the election’. Economic and inflation concerns are climbing fast, with executives naming them top threats by Jan-26. Meanwhile, war and terrorism fears have held steady since 2024, signalling a persistent global unease.

Resilience

Global executives report steady confidence in their preparedness for political and economic risks, though inflation readiness is slipping. Meanwhile, resilience to war and terrorism is quietly strengthening, reflecting a shift in strategic focus.

Signals from the front lines

For brokers

1. Insurance as a growth engine – Risk transfer absorbs uncertainty so companies can expand into new markets, invest in emerging tech and restructure supply chains without hesitation. This means decisions don’t get delayed, and growth doesn’t get stuck.

2. Supporting the tech and energy frontier– Breakthroughs in technology and energy sources are opening new doors – but also new risks. As regulations lag behind innovation, coverage gaps emerge. This creates a sweet spot for specialty, insurance – helping fast-moving sectors stay protected while exploring unchartered, new frontiers.

3. Closing risk gaps together – When insurers, brokers and clients collaborate, the results speak for themselves. Risks get addressed, solutions are sharper, and insurance moves beyond recovery to supporting and facilitating growth.
For businesses

1. Bake in resilience to gain competitive edge – It’s time to view resilience as an engine for growth. And strategies – like diversifying suppliers, nearshoring and investing in early warning systems – should be standard practice in an uncertain risk landscape.

2. Take advantage of seismic shifts – If you're an agile firm, the benefits can flow – whether it's investing in underserved regions like Africa and Asia or getting ahead with new tech and energy sources. Early-mover advantages bear fruit and can set you apart competitively.

3. Don't wait for risk to catch up – Traditional, insurance cover is no longer enough. Today’s risks are more complex and fast-moving. This amid misinformation, energy shifts and geopolitical conflict. Future resilience lies in insurance models and services that adapt quickly and help you stay ahead.

Spotlight insights

Inside the minds of global business leaders

Key pressure points at a glance

Political risk unease deepens

88% agreed that the political landscape will affect their business’ ability to trade profitably – a notable uptick from 69% in January 2025.
Growth ambitions dampened

83% believe the current geopolitical & economic uncertainty will limit their business’ growth plans – a sharp rise from 68% in January 2025.
Supply chains in flux

87% expect to make changes to their suppliers and supply chains due to geopolitical tensions – up from 75% in January 2025.
Security reassessment on the rise

32% plan to reassess the security of their overseas operations this year, compared to 23% in 2024.
Economic uncertainty tops risk list

26% cite economic uncertainty as their greatest threat – up from 21% in 2024.
Inflation concerns edge up

27% identify inflation as their top threat now, rising to 28% by next January, and up from 24% in 2024.

Data from 3,500 executives surveyed in our 2024 and 2025 Risk & Resilience surveys. The 2025 research was conducted between January 6–20 and July 30–August 6. Note: the 'agree/believe and expect' stats are the 'strongly agree' and 'somewhat agree' answers combined. The January 2026 figure reflects global executives' expectations.

Leadership views