The power of control: Control the minerals, shape the future

AI, clean energy and advanced manufacturing depend on critical minerals such as copper, cobalt, graphite and rare-earth elements¹³. As demand grows, control of these resources is becoming a key source of geopolitical power and supply chain risk.

China dominates several stages of critical mineral supply chains, including around 70% of global processing capacity¹⁴. Export controls introduced and expanded in 2025 showed how access to rare earths can disrupt manufacturers worldwide and influence economic resilience, technological leadership and military capability.

As Emily Benson, Head of Strategy at Minerva Technology Futures, explains:

"Governments recognise that supply chain interdependence creates a great tool of leverage for exacting certain political outcomes. The result is a growing focus on technological sovereignty, trusted suppliers and domestic resilience.”

Export controls on advanced semiconductors, competition for mineral assets and greater scrutiny of foreign technology are now part of a wider effort to reduce strategic dependence on rival nations¹⁵.

Governments and investors are also pursuing alternatives, not only by diversifying suppliers, but by developing new materials. One example is CuspAI, a UK-based company that recently launched its AI Materials Foundry, a platform that brings together a global network of data, labs, compute and scientific expertise for the design of new materials for semiconductors, clean energy and advanced manufacturing¹⁶.

From geopolitics to business risk

What begins as a geopolitical contest over resources can quickly become a business challenge, extending deep into supply chains and exposing organisations to cascading operational and financial shocks.

Restrictions on critical minerals, export controls, sanctions or disruption at key processing hubs could cascade through global value chains affecting everything from production timelines and investment decisions to access to AI and other advanced technologies that nations and organisations increasingly depend on.

“Stacked crises are compounding business risk, as geopolitical competition, climate pressures, resource constraints and technological transformation unfold at once. Many businesses may not fully understand where critical inputs come from, which suppliers create concentration risk, or how quickly operations could recover from disruption.”
Emily Benson, Head of Strategy, Minerva Technology Futures

The resilience challenge

As Henry Kissinger once argued, “Absolute security for one nation means absolute insecurity for all nations.” As nations vie for this security, businesses find themselves in the crossfire, courting the insecurity through gritted teeth, forced to rebuild their operational defences.

To build greater resilience, these businesses need a clearer understanding of their vulnerabilities and dependencies, alongside efforts to diversify suppliers and sourcing routes. This includes the new vulnerabilities and dependencies that come with these efforts.

In a world where access to critical resources increasingly translates into geopolitical and economic influence, resilience may prove just as important as efficiency. Control, ultimately, has become one of the world’s most valuable strategic assets.