Spotlight on Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty 2026

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Spotlight on Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty 2026

Spotlight on Geopolitical & Economic Uncertainty 2026

Why adaptability matters more than scale

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The era of predictable globalisation is fading. As politics and national security reshape access to markets, technology and supply chains, success increasingly depends on resilience and the ability to adapt quickly to disruption.

This report explores how executives are adapting to a world where geopolitical volatility, conflict, tariffs, trade tensions, marine chokepoints, energy market uncertainty and intensifying competition for technology and strategic resources have converged and compounded. Together, these forces are creating a more unstable operating environment and a web of interconnected risks.

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Businesses cannot predict every disruption, but they can build the capacity to adapt. In an era of geopolitical, economic and technological change, resilience, visibility and strategic flexibility will be key to long-term success.

Securing sovereignty

Governments are increasingly treating technologies, critical minerals, energy and data as strategic assets, creating new dependencies, vulnerabilities and concentrations of risk for businesses.

Securing sovereignty

The global security shift

Staying in the game

Key findings
Takeaways
What the stats reveal
Industry insight
Data deep dives
FAQs

What global executives are telling us

Perspectives from 3,500 business leaders about their geopolitical and economic concerns.

Economic concern tops risk agendas  

41% rank economic slowdown, inflation, recession and sovereign debt among their top three risks, up from 34% in January 2026.
Political change is hitting profitability

82% agree that changes in the political landscape are affecting their ability to trade profitably, up from 76% in January 2026.
Growth hit by geopolitical tensions

90% agree that geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty will limit their businesses' growth plans, up from 76% at the start of 2026.
Geopolitics is affecting supply chains

77% agree that due to rising geopolitical tension their business will make changes to their suppliers and supply chains over the next year.
Employee-related risk concern rises 

91% agree that access to talent, employee retention and mental health challenges are concerns for their business, up from 76% in January 2026.
Cybersecurity & system outage worries rise  

44% rank cybersecurity, systemic cyber attack, mandatory reporting and consider third-party attacks and system outages consistently as a top three risk concern up from 37% in January 2026.

Beazley Risk & Resilience survey, January and July 2026

For brokers

1. Help clients understand critical dependencies - Political change is affecting profitable trade, so clients need help identifying supply chain, technology, capital and infrastructure exposures, and their implications for insurance and financial resilience.

2. Keep pace with the changing risk landscape - As clients diversify suppliers, trade routes, markets and technology ecosystems, insurance solutions must evolve to address emerging risks, regulatory changes, sanctions exposure and coverage gaps across operations.

3. Use insurance to give clients room to adapt - Risk intelligence, scenario planning and specialty insurance can give clients greater financial flexibility when disruption occurs, helping to absorb shocks, change course and continue trading through geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
For business leaders

1. Build optionality before disruption strikes – Optionality is becoming a competitive advantage. Businesses need credible alternatives across suppliers, technology and markets, to reduce reliance on single suppliers or supply chains to strengthen operational resilience for when disruption occurs.

2. Understand your critical dependencies – Map and understand the depth of hidden dependence on the systems and resources that underpin organisational growth to understand how sudden disruption would affect operational resilience.

3. Use resilience to unlock growth – With geopolitical tension limiting growth, work with your insurance partners to horizon scan, risk model and plan the financial resilience required to adapt quickly, invest confidently and seize future opportunities.

What the statistics reveal

Our survey results show political risk concerns have eased from a 2024 peak, while economic uncertainty, inflation and war-related risks remain elevated. Highlighting how disruption is now a permanent feature.

Resilience has improved across every category, especially war, terrorism and inflation. But rising confidence brings its own risk: firms may underestimate the scale, complexity and severity of disruption.

FAQs

Geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty are limiting growth plans for 90% of global executives we surveyed, up from 78% in January 2026 and 68% in January 2025.
Rising geopolitical tension mean 77% of surveyed organisations plan to change suppliers or supply chains over the next year. Diversifying suppliers, locations, markets and trade routes can reduce reliance on single sources and supports business continuity when disruption strikes.
Hidden dependencies are critical systems, infrastructure and resources such as cloud infrastructure, payment networks, satellites, GPS and suppliers that organisations depend on to function. Disruption to these systems can cause operational and financial losses.
Businesses can map critical dependencies, monitor emerging threats, test disruption scenarios and establish alternative suppliers, trade routes, communications channels and funding arrangements.
Specialty insurance can protect cash flow, support recovery and give businesses greater confidence to invest, trade and grow when geopolitical disruption affects operations, supplies or investments.
Businesses are operating in a more volatile environment where disruption can occur with little warning. Resilience helps organisations absorb shocks, adapt quickly, maintain continuity and pursue growth despite uncertainty.
Concentration risk arises when organisations rely heavily on a single supplier, technology platform, trade route or infrastructure provider. Disruption to one critical dependency can create widespread operational and financial impacts.

Key findings

What global executives are telling us

Perspectives from 3,500 business leaders about their geopolitical and economic concerns.

Economic concern tops risk agendas  

41% rank economic slowdown, inflation, recession and sovereign debt among their top three risks, up from 34% in January 2026.
Political change is hitting profitability

82% agree that changes in the political landscape are affecting their ability to trade profitably, up from 76% in January 2026.
Growth hit by geopolitical tensions

90% agree that geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty will limit their businesses' growth plans, up from 76% at the start of 2026.
Geopolitics is affecting supply chains

77% agree that due to rising geopolitical tension their business will make changes to their suppliers and supply chains over the next year.
Employee-related risk concern rises 

91% agree that access to talent, employee retention and mental health challenges are concerns for their business, up from 76% in January 2026.
Cybersecurity & system outage worries rise  

44% rank cybersecurity, systemic cyber attack, mandatory reporting and consider third-party attacks and system outages consistently as a top three risk concern up from 37% in January 2026.

Beazley Risk & Resilience survey, January and July 2026

Takeaways

For brokers

1. Help clients understand critical dependencies - Political change is affecting profitable trade, so clients need help identifying supply chain, technology, capital and infrastructure exposures, and their implications for insurance and financial resilience.

2. Keep pace with the changing risk landscape - As clients diversify suppliers, trade routes, markets and technology ecosystems, insurance solutions must evolve to address emerging risks, regulatory changes, sanctions exposure and coverage gaps across operations.

3. Use insurance to give clients room to adapt - Risk intelligence, scenario planning and specialty insurance can give clients greater financial flexibility when disruption occurs, helping to absorb shocks, change course and continue trading through geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
For business leaders

1. Build optionality before disruption strikes – Optionality is becoming a competitive advantage. Businesses need credible alternatives across suppliers, technology and markets, to reduce reliance on single suppliers or supply chains to strengthen operational resilience for when disruption occurs.

2. Understand your critical dependencies – Map and understand the depth of hidden dependence on the systems and resources that underpin organisational growth to understand how sudden disruption would affect operational resilience.

3. Use resilience to unlock growth – With geopolitical tension limiting growth, work with your insurance partners to horizon scan, risk model and plan the financial resilience required to adapt quickly, invest confidently and seize future opportunities.

What the stats reveal

Industry insight

Data deep dives

FAQs

Geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty are limiting growth plans for 90% of global executives we surveyed, up from 78% in January 2026 and 68% in January 2025.
Rising geopolitical tension mean 77% of surveyed organisations plan to change suppliers or supply chains over the next year. Diversifying suppliers, locations, markets and trade routes can reduce reliance on single sources and supports business continuity when disruption strikes.
Hidden dependencies are critical systems, infrastructure and resources such as cloud infrastructure, payment networks, satellites, GPS and suppliers that organisations depend on to function. Disruption to these systems can cause operational and financial losses.
Businesses can map critical dependencies, monitor emerging threats, test disruption scenarios and establish alternative suppliers, trade routes, communications channels and funding arrangements.
Specialty insurance can protect cash flow, support recovery and give businesses greater confidence to invest, trade and grow when geopolitical disruption affects operations, supplies or investments.
Businesses are operating in a more volatile environment where disruption can occur with little warning. Resilience helps organisations absorb shocks, adapt quickly, maintain continuity and pursue growth despite uncertainty.
Concentration risk arises when organisations rely heavily on a single supplier, technology platform, trade route or infrastructure provider. Disruption to one critical dependency can create widespread operational and financial impacts.

Methodology
The report is based on insights from the Beazley Risk & Resilience surveys of 3,500 business leaders and insurance buyers across the UK, US, Canada, Singapore, France, Germany and Spain, spanning multiple industries and revenue bands, and supported by expert interviews.

Read the full methodology Glossary

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