Perception vs Reality

Since 2021, we have been tracking how global business leaders view an increasingly unpredictable risk landscape, asking not only what concerns them today, but what they expect to be their greatest challenge tomorrow.

Through our annual Risk & Resilience survey, 3,500 executives identify which geopolitical and economic risks matter most now and which they expect to rise up the agenda in the year ahead. With five years of data behind us, we compare expectation with reality, exploring how accurately executives anticipated emerging risks and how their confidence in managing them has evolved. In a world defined by disruption, hindsight offers a powerful test of foresight, revealing whether business leaders are staying ahead of change or being forced to react to it.

Political risk

Executives have generally predicted political risk with consistent accuracy year-on-year. Despite fluctuations, concern has remained remarkably stable, reflecting a business environment fashioned by ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and political uncertainty.

War and terrorism risk

War and terrorism risk has moved from a secondary concern to a persistent strategic worry. Executives initially underestimated its prominence, but as geopolitical tensions have intensified, concern has risen steadily, now stabilising at a high level. The close alignment between recent predictions and reality suggests business leaders now view war and terrorism risk as an enduring, ever-present threat.

Economic uncertainty

Economic uncertainty remains a concern for global executives, reflecting the lasting impact of inflation, recession fears and market volatility. While concern has fluctuated since peaking in 2022, it has trended upwards recently. The close alignment between predicted and actual results suggests that business leaders recognise that global economic uncertainty is an omnipresent concern.

Inflation risk

Inflation risk is an entrenched business concern. Since emerging as a major issue in 2022, concern has remained high, reflecting sustained pressure from rising sovereign costs and interest rates. The close match between forecasts and outcomes suggests executives expect inflationary pressures to endure.

Political risk

War and terrorism risk

Economic uncertainty

Inflation risk

The statistics in these charts are drawn from our annual Risk & Resilience Surveys, conducted since 2021. Initially focused on UK and US respondents, the survey expanded in 2022 to include Canada and Singapore, and in 2024 France, Germany and Spain were added. This year’s survey, conducted between the 5th and 13th January 26 used the same sample base as 2025.